Why Was Violence Lower in Nigeria’s 2023 Election: Implications for Peacebuilding?
The 2023 election was unlike any since Nigeria’s Fourth Republic began in 1999. Among the many anomalies and contradictions included high registration and low turnout, a popular third-party candidate, and an electorate less polarized by region, ethnicity, and religion than at any time in the last 24 years. The biggest puzzle, though,was why violence was so low, despite so many evident, proximate conflict drivers. The answer may be in a changing structural context that leaders and practitioners should note and build upon for a more peaceful future.It was clear for a month before the February2023 election that this one was likely to be less violent than the elections in 2015 and 2019based on a quantitative comparison of patterns and trends in political violence over the last 15years. However, this was hard to explain given a context of significant socio-economic stress, very high electoral stakes, and many challenges in the process and credibility of the election itself.Because of these dynamics, many observers predicted that there would be a big spike in election violence. There was not.
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